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Kyle Novack's avatar

Great article. The empty promise gear is where your framework and mine intersect. The map did work, for a while, and part of the reason it felt like it worked is that the economy underneath it was genuinely producing better outcomes for average people. But here is where it gets interesting: if we have been mismeasuring inflation, capturing only the net result rather than the full picture of inflation, then the economy has been quietly delivering less than the data suggests for decades. The promise did not hollow out because people stopped following the map. It hollowed out because the machine underneath it shifted in ways the measurements never captured. So we kept handing the same map to the next generation without realizing the terrain had changed.

The other piece your article touches on without naming it directly is the unintended consequences problem. When everyone gets a degree, the degree stops being the differentiator it was sold as. Nobody planned for that outcome because they were focused on the primary benefit, not what happens when you push it to the extreme. That is the same diagnostic failure: pointing at symptoms, blaming the wrong variables, and never getting to the actual mechanism underneath.

When you finally do find the mechanism things get extremely interesting.

Dido Torchi's avatar

Great article as always, Kyle, and love that you've supported all of your points with research! As a recent undegraduate this is underemployed, I feel this. Ironically, this is by choice, since I hated my previous career so much. But the reason for that is because I never thought long and hard enough about what I actually want to do vs. what my parents/society wanted me to do (for that illusion of safety gear).

But that's why I've always been building things on the side. Always good to not have to rely on one specific "machine" and build out your own to test out what actually works and gives your life the most freedom.

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